Wike Has Already Counted the 2027 Votes, Apparently INEC Is Just Yet to Catch Up

Nyesom Wike has done something Nigerians usually reserve for football arguments: he has predicted the final score before the match has even started. The FCT Minister says President Bola Tinubu will secure at least 25 per cent of the vote in every state in Northern Nigeria in 2027, while former Vice President Atiku Abubakar will fail to reach 10 per cent in many Southern states.

At this point, we may not need INEC. Wike has apparently opened his own collation centre.

According to him, Tinubu will take Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara and Kogi in the North-Central and will comfortably cross the constitutional 25 per cent threshold across the entire North. Atiku, meanwhile, should not start pricing celebration rice for too many Southern states because, according to Wike, he will struggle to even reach 10 per cent in several of them.

The confidence is impressive.

The election is still ahead, campaigns are still developing, political alliances are still changing and Nigerians have not even finished arguing about who should be on which ballot.

But Wike already knows the score.

It is the sort of confidence you have when your friend asks whether you are sure your team will win and you respond, “Forget it. I have seen the match.” Only this time, the match has not happened.

Wike's argument is also interesting because he appears to be treating Nigerian politics like mathematics. Tinubu needs 25 per cent here. Atiku will get less than 10 per cent there. Add some political structures. Remove one opposition coalition. Carry one governor. Subtract another governor. And somehow, congratulations, we have a winner.

But Nigerian elections have never been that simple.

People vote for candidates, parties, religion, ethnicity, personality, anger, loyalty, stomach and sometimes because their neighbour told them that this particular candidate is “the one that will help us.”

Wike himself knows how unpredictable political calculations can become. In 2023, he and the other members of the G5 refused to back Atiku, with Wike openly supporting a political direction that ultimately contributed to the opposition vote being fractured.

Now he is back with another prediction, only this time he appears to have upgraded from political strategist to human opinion poll.

He has also dismissed the argument that economic hardship will hurt Tinubu's chances, arguing that Nigerians have always experienced hunger during elections and still voted.

Which may be the most Nigerian political analysis imaginable.

Forget opinion polls. Forget economic indicators. Forget voter sentiment.