The cost of living is becoming Nigeria’s most powerful political campaign, and the pepper seller is the campaign manager

The election is on the way, and I have news for every politician with a bus, a banner, and a smiling photo: your most powerful opponent isn’t in any party. Her name is Madam at the market.

Experts say the cost of living is now the biggest issue in the 2027 race, with the vote set for January 16. And honestly, the experts could have saved themselves a research grant. All they needed to do was go to the market and ask, “How much is this?” The answer comes with a facial expression that explains everything.

Let’s look at the official picture first, so nobody says I’m just shouting. Inflation has cooled, and the figure for September was about 14.6%. That is lower than the scary heights of previous years, and the government would like you to know it. But food inflation is still at about 19.6%, and if you’ve bought rice recently, you already know that “slightly lower” and “affordable” are different words. It’s like being told your landlord has reduced the rent increase. Reduced from where? To where? I still can’t pay.

Then there’s fuel. Petrol was recently around N1,400 a litre in Lagos and Abuja, according to Reuters checks. Supporters of the subsidy removal say it was a necessary reform that investors respect. Critics say it also made life much harder for ordinary households. Both sides are talking about the same reform, but only one side buys petrol with its own salary.

And that’s the thing about cost-of-living politics: it is the only debate nobody can fake. You can wave a flag. You can sing a campaign jingle. You can distribute free T-shirts, and trust me, the T-shirts are always very nice. But on election morning, the voter will be standing at the polling unit, quietly doing sums. “Transport to get here, N-something. Indomie for the family, N-something. The generator that I really wish I didn’t need, N-something.” That calculation is the only poll that matters.

Meanwhile, every camp is now promising relief with great confidence. The government says reforms are working. The opposition says reforms are suffering. And somewhere in the middle, a man selling roasted corn is quietly implementing the most effective price-control policy in the country: “Oga, na old price I dey give you today. Tomorrow, I no sabi.”

So here’s some free advice, and I’m not charging a consultancy fee. Whoever wants my vote should skip the slogans and answer four questions. What will food cost? What will transport cost? What will power cost? And how long will it take? Put the numbers on a card and print them on the T-shirts.

Because the winner of this campaign won’t be the loudest speaker, it’ll be the person who can tell a hungry Nigerian, truthfully, “Your next market day will be easier.”